Florida Government and Politics Weekly Update

State Budget: Gov. Crist’s Proposed $66.5 Billion Budget for 2009 – 2010 Depends on $4.7 Billion in Federal Economic Stimulus Funding and Approval of the Seminole Indian Gaming Compact

On February 20, 2009, Gov. Charlie Crist sent legislative leaders his proposed state budget for the 2009 – 2010  fiscal year. The $65.5 billion proposal includes $4.7 billion in funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the recently enacted federal economic stimulus legislation. The budget also depends on legislative approval of the gaming compact between the state and the Seminole Tribe of Florida.

The budget proposes increases in several areas, including:

• An increase of $1 billion for public education, which would raise per-student funding by 5.06 percent
• Increases for post-secondary education, including a 5.6-percent increase for state universities and medical schools and an 8.8-percent increase for community colleges and state colleges
• Health and human services increases, including an additional $45 million for cash assistance and food stamps, $52 million for the Florida KidCare program, $294 million for Medicaid for the Aged or Disabled, and $470 million for the Medically Needy Program
• Funding of $200 million for renewable energy and green technology
• Funding of $500 million for Everglades restoration and the Florida Forever land acquisition program
• Increases in economic development incentives, including film and entertainment industry incentives and the Qualified Targeted Industry incentive program, and increases for Visit Florida, Enterprise Florida, and Space Florida

Gov. Crist’s plan proposes no major tax increases, but it increases vehicle registration fees, removes the sales tax exemption for bottled water, and allows university tuition to rise by as much as 15 percent.

The budget is based on the November 2008 state revenue estimates. State economists have testified to legislative committees that revenue collections have already fallen more than $200 million behind that estimate. The Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference is scheduled to make the next official state revenue estimate on March 18, 2009.

Approximately 12 percent of the revenues relied on for recurring costs comes from non-recurring sources. The Florida Constitution prohibits non-recurring revenues from providing more than three percent of the funding for recurring costs without a three-fifths vote of each house of the Legislature.

Gov. Crist’s proposals could be controversial. Incoming House of Representatives Speaker Larry Cretul (R-Ocala) expressed concern about the use of federal economic stimulus funding, stating, “Adding federal stimulus money to the Florida economy may help Floridians during these hard economic times. However, the stimulus money cannot be seen as the only solution to balancing the state’s budget.” Rep. Cretul noted that the Legislature may need to consider further budget cuts and that spending decisions made in 2009 will impact subsequent budget years.

Public Opinion: New Quinnipiac Survey Indicates Continuing Public Support for Gov. Crist
According to Quinnipiac University Polling Institute public opinion surveys released on February 18 and 19, 2009, Gov. Crist continues to enjoy very high job approval ratings. Overall, 67 percent of the voters surveyed approved of the way the Republican governor is handling his job and 22 percent disapproved. There was no statistically significant difference in Gov. Crist’s support by party affiliation or gender. On a regional basis, the governor’s approval rating was highest in the southwestern part of the state (80 percent) and lowest in the central part of the state (58 percent).

The public was not as supportive of the Florida Legislature, with 37 percent of the public approving the Legislature’s performance and public disproval at 42 percent. Partisan differences were evident, with 44 percent of Republicans approving of the Republican-majority legislature, while only 32 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of Independents approved.

In a question about the 2010 election for governor, 48 percent of all respondents, including 22 percent of Democratic respondents, said that they would vote to reelect Gov. Crist over a generic Democratic candidate.

Voters also were surveyed about how they would vote for U.S. senator in the 2010 Democratic and Republican primaries. Among the Democrats, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio and U.S. Reps. Kendrick Meek (D-17th Congressional District) and Ron Klein (D-22nd Congressional District) were in a statistical three-way tie, with 16 percent, 16 percent, and 14 percent respectively. Among Republicans, 53 percent would vote for Gov. Crist if he chose to run for the U.S. Senate. Asked how they would vote if Gov. Crist were not in the race, 34 percent of Republicans supported U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-14th Congressional District), followed by U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-13th Congressional District) with 11 percent, and former Florida House Speakers Marco Rubio (R-West Miami) with six percent and Allan Bense (R-Panama City) with four percent.

The survey of 1,001 registered voters was conducted from February 11 – 16, 2009. The margins of error were 3.1 percentage points for the overall survey, 4.7 percentage points for the Republican-only breakdowns, and 5.1 percent for the Democrat-only breakdowns.

Economy: Florida Tourism Declined in 2008, Reversing a Seven-Year Trend
Visit Florida, the state’s tourism marketing corporation, announced on February 16, 2009 that an estimated 82.5 million visitors came to Florida in 2008. The 2008 figure represents a 2.3 percent decline in visitors from the previous year and follows seven consecutive years of tourism increases.

The decline appears to coincide with the global economic meltdown. Data from the first two quarters of 2008 indicate a 2.9 percent increase in the number of visitors compared to the first two quarters of 2007, while visitors in the fourth quarter of 2008 were 13.6 percent fewer than visitors in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Foreign visitors to Florida increased in 2008. The number of overseas visitors to Florida increased by 1.1 percent in 2008 as compared with 2007, but overseas visitors declined by eight percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. The number of Canadian visitors in 2008 was 14.0 percent higher than in 2007, but the data from the fourth quarter of 2008 showed a 5.7 percent decline in Canadian visitors.

Economic Stimulus: Florida’s Share of the Federal Stimulus Package Could Exceed $12 Billion
On February 16, 2009, Florida Office of Policy and Budget Director Jerry McDaniel announced that Florida’s share of the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 could be as much as $12.2 billion over the next three years, including $3.2 billion in the current budget year, $5.2 billion in fiscal year 2009 – 2010, and $3.8 billion in 2010 –2011. The largest share of the federal funding, $5.3 billion, would go to social service programs.

The exact amounts of funding available are not yet clear. One outstanding question involves $2.4 billion in education funding. Unless the U.S. Department of Education issues a waiver, Florida would not qualify for funding because of a provision in the federal legislation that withholds funding from states that have decreased their share of funding for public schools. The state has applied for the waiver. Legislators also have expressed concerns that acceptance of some of the federal stimulus funds would require permanent increases in state expenditures, which would remain in place after the temporary stimulus funding expires.

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