Florida Government and Politics Weekly Update

Politics: Two Polls Show Former House Speaker Marco Rubio Gaining in U.S. Senate Primary Race

Polls released by Rasmussen Reports and the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute both show former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-Miami) gaining in the 2010 Republican primary for U.S. Senate against Gov. Charlie Crist.

Although Mr. Rubio remains the underdog, the Rasmussen survey of 466 likely Republican primary voters released on October 20, 2009 shows Gov. Crist with a 49 percent to 36 percent lead. Sixty-seven percent of respondents reported a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” impression of Gov. Crist, while 55 percent reported a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” impression of Mr. Rubio. The governor’s unfavorable rating was slightly higher than his opponent’s, with 32 percent of respondents reporting a “very unfavorable” or “somewhat unfavorable” impression, as compared with the 22 percent of respondents who reported a “very unfavorable” or “somewhat unfavorable” impression of the former House speaker. The survey had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

In a Rasmussen survey taken in August 2009, Gov. Crist led Mr. Rubio by 53 percent to 31 percent.

The Quinnipiac poll released on October 21, 2009 shows Mr. Rubio cutting Gov. Crist’s lead in half. The October survey had Gov. Crist leading Mr. Rubio by 50 percent to 35 percent, while in the previous Quinnipiac poll, released on August 19, 2009, Gov. Crist led Mr. Rubio by 55 percent to 26 percent.

The poll showed Gov. Crist with a 20-percentage-point lead over his likely Democratic opponent in the general election, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17^th Congressional District), 51 percent to 31 percent, with 14 percent undecided. Rep. Meek posted a slight lead over Mr. Rubio in a general election matchup, with 36 percent of respondents saying they would vote for Rep. Meek, 33 percent saying they would vote for Mr. Rubio, and 28 percent undecided.

The survey of 1,078 registered voters, including 396 Republicans, had a margin of error of three percentage points for the general election questions and 4.9 percentage points for the Republican primary questions.

Politics: Attorney General Bill McCollum Maintains Lead Over CFO Alex Sink in Race for Governor

The October 21, 2009 Quinnipiac poll also surveyed the 2010 gubernatorial contest, finding that Attorney General Bill McCollum, the likely Republican candidate, is maintaining a four- percentage-point lead over the Democratic candidate, state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.

In the October poll, Attorney General McCollum led CFO Sink by 36 percent to 32 percent, with 27 percent undecided. These results were similar to the results of the August 2009 Quinnipiac poll, when Attorney General McCollum led by 38 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent undecided. In a June 9, 2009 Quinnipiac poll, CFO Sink led Attorney General McCollum by 38 percent to 34 percent.

The attorney general’s lead may be attributable in part to his greater name recognition, although a majority of voters said they “hadn’t heard enough” about either him or CFO Sink. Fifty percent of voters said they had not heard enough about Attorney General McCollum, and 68 percent of voters said they had not heard enough about CFO Sink.

Legislature: Senate President Atwater Recommends a December Special Legislative Session on Rail Transportation

After an October 19, 2009, meeting with federal officials, Florida Senate President Jeff Atwater (R-North Palm Beach) recommended that the legislature convene a special session in December to address passenger rail issues.

The state is seeking $2.5 billion of the $8 billion of federal funding being made available for high-speed passenger rail projects. According to Sen. Atwater, federal officials are likely to make funding decisions before the next regular session of the legislature, which convenes on March 2, 2010. The officials, he said, would be reluctant to provide the funding Florida is seeking unless the state shows its commitment to the projects. Referring to the federal officials, Sen. Atwater said, “That’s what their communication was to us today, ‘Look, we need to see long-term commitment on rail activity in Florida if we’re going to make this investment.”

Sen. Atwater was joined by Florida’s two U.S. Senators, Bill Nelson (D) and George LeMieux (R), state Senate Ways and Means Chair JD Alexander (R-Winter Haven), and state Senate Minority Leader Alfred (Al) Lawson, Jr. (D-Tallahassee).

Gov. Crist immediately announced his support for a December special session. A spokesperson for Florida House Speaker Larry Cretul (R-Ocala) stated that the speaker had not decided whether he would support the idea of a special session, but that he “is looking at the issue very methodically.” Speaker Cretul has previously been hesitant to accept federal stimulus funding.

Potential projects include the proposed SunRail commuter line in Central Florida, support for the Tri-Rail system in South Florida, and a plan to convert a freight-rail line between Jacksonville and Miami to passenger rail.

Gaming: House Speaker Cretul Declares Impasse in Seminole Gaming Negotiations, Requests Federal Action

In a letter to the National Indian Gaming Commission dated October 21, 2009, House Speaker Larry Cretul (R-Ocala) stated that the state’s negotiations with the Seminole Tribe of Florida over a proposed gaming compact had reached an impasse that could be remedied only through federal intervention.

According to the speaker, the tribe is conducting gaming activities at seven Florida facilities that are prohibited under federal law in the absence of a valid gaming compact. He requested that the commission exercise its authority to impose fines or shut down gaming activities at the tribe’s casinos in an effort to bring the tribe into compliance with federal law. Speaker Cretul said, “The Tribe’s ability to profit from these illegal games creates a disincentive to enter into a compact and places the State at a significant disadvantage in negotiating games to which it never gave its consent.”

The Seminole Tribe responded with a statement that, in its view, the compact it entered into in 2007 was approved by the federal commission and remains valid for federal purposes, even though it was invalidated by the Florida Supreme Court in 2008 on the grounds that a compact requires state legislative approval. 

Public Policy News Alert is part of our ongoing commitment to providing up-to-the-minute information about pressing concerns or industry issues affecting our clients and our colleagues. If you have any questions about this alert or would like to discuss these topics further, please contact your Foley attorney or any of the following individuals: 

Marnie George of The George Group assists Foley on a variety of government and public policy matters as a consultant.