Politics: Quinnipiac Polls Show Former House Speaker Rubio Leading Governor Crist by Three Points, Attorney General McCollum Leading CFO Sink by 10
In surveys released on January 26 and 27, 2010, the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute reported that former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio leads Gov. Charlie Crist by 47 percent to 44 percent in their Republican primary contest for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by appointed Republican Senator George LeMieux.
The January release was the first time the Quinnipiac poll showed Mr. Rubio with a lead over the governor, but the three-point lead was within the poll’s 3.8-percentage-point margin of error for Republican-only questions. In a poll released on August 19, 2009, Gov. Crist led by 55 percent to 26 percent, and Quinnipiac’s October 21, 2009 poll showed Gov. Crist leading by 50 percent to 35 percent.
The poll also found that the governor’s job-approval rating was at the lowest point since he took office in 2007. The January 2010 poll showed 50 percent of respondents approved of the Gov. Crist’s job performance and 38 percent disapproved. At its peak in mid-2007, Gov. Crist’s job approval rating was 71 percent, with only an 11-percent disapproval rating.
In the race to succeed Gov. Crist, Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum extended his lead over Democratic CFO Alex Sink. The January poll showed the attorney general leading by 41 percent to 31 percent, with 25 percent undecided. The two previous Quinnipiac Florida polls, released on August 19 and October 21, 2009, both showed Attorney General McCollum with a four-point lead over CFO Sink, and a June 9, 2009 poll showed CFO Sink leading Attorney General McCollum by four points.
Attorney General McCollum faces primary opposition from Sen. Paula Dockery (R-Lakeland). The poll showed 44 percent of registered Republicans support the attorney general, six percent support Sen. Dockery, and 47 percent were undecided.
The poll also addressed some issues that are likely to play a role in this year’s statewide races. Respondents disapproved of President Barack Obama’s job performance by 49 percent to 45 percent; three months earlier, Florida voters approved of the president’s job performance by a margin of 48 percent to 46 percent. Respondents disapproved of the health care proposals under consideration in Congress by 57 percent to 32 percent. On the issue of offshore oil drilling, lifting the ban on drilling in federal waters off Florida won the support of 55 percent of voters, with 38 percent opposed. However, when asked whether allowing drilling rigs five miles off the coast was a good idea or a bad idea, 39 percent approved and 53 percent disapproved.
The Quinnipiac University poll interviewed 1,618 registered Florida voters from January 20 – 24, 2010. The margin of error on general questions was 2.4 percentage points. The margin of error for questions that were asked only of registered Republicans was 3.8 percent.
State Budget: Governor Crist Proposes $69.2 Billion Budget for 2010 – 2011
On January 29, 2010, Gov. Crist released his proposed $69.2-billion state budget for the 2010 – 2011 fiscal year. The proposal represents an increase of more than $2.7 billion over Florida’s $66.5 billion 2009 – 2010 spending. The proposal to increase spending comes only a week after state legislators warned about a potential $3.2 billion shortfall should the Legislature enact a “continuation” budget that merely maintains current expenditure levels.
The governor’s proposal includes approximately $200 million in budget cuts. The budget also includes spending increases, including a $535.5 million boost to school spending. The proposal also includes a $57.4 million cut in the corporate income tax, a 10-day back-to-school sales-tax holiday, $50 million for the Florida Forever land buying program, $50 million for Everglades restoration, no tuition increases for state colleges and universities, and no raises for state employees.
Gov. Crist’s budget depends on $4 billion in federal stimulus money, including $1.2 billion for increased Medicaid costs. The governor’s plan also counts on $434 million in revenue from a proposed Seminole Tribe gaming compact and $584.4 million in sweeps of 32 state trust funds, including $232 million from the Lawton Chiles Endowment, $101 million from affordable housing trust funds, $40 million from the Insurance Regulatory Trust Fund, and $48 million from the Financial Institutions Regulatory Trust Fund.
Legislative reactions were not positive. Rep. David Rivera (R-Miami), House Appropriations Council Chair, said that the governor’s budget was “not very helpful in providing a starting point.” Senate President Jeff Atwater (R-North Palm Beach) described the governor’s assumptions as “rather optimistic” and warned against counting revenue from a Seminole gaming compact before a compact achieves the required legislative approval.
Transportation: President Obama Announces $1.25 Billion Federal Award for High-Speed Rail
At an appearance in Tampa on January 28, 2010, President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden announced that Florida would receive a grant of $1.25 billion to support a proposed high-speed rail line between Tampa and Orlando. The state had applied for $2.5 billion out of a total of $8 billion in federal funding for high-speed rail.
Aside from Vice President Biden’s comment that the grant was a “down payment,” the Florida Department of Transportation has yet to receive instructions on how the funds will be spent. Assistant Transportation Secretary Kevin Thibault told a reporter, “We haven’t gotten any guidance yet on the $1.25 billion and what that’s going to do for us. You heard Vice President Joe Biden say this was a ‘down payment’ so there may be a plan they haven’t shared with us. There may be other pots of money they plan to give us. Once we have that, we’ll have a better idea of where we go from here.”
State officials indicated that the project will create 2,300 jobs. Construction could begin as soon as early 2011, and the project could be up and running in early 2014.
Only California, which will receive $2.25 billion for a rail line between Los Angeles and San Francisco, took a bigger share of the federal funding.
The status of other funding requests, including $270 million for Atlantic Coast Amtrak passenger service and $268 million to buy existing freight track for the SunRail project, was uncertain as of the January 28 announcement. State officials were unclear as to when or where they would find the remaining $1.3 billion needed to fund the Tampa-Orlando rail line, aside from the general expectation of more federal funding in the future.
Public Policy News Alert is part of our ongoing commitment to providing up-to-the-minute information about pressing concerns or industry issues affecting our clients and our colleagues. If you have any questions about this alert or would like to discuss these topics further, please contact your Foley attorney or any of the following individuals:
Marnie George |
Jonathan P. Kilman |
Marnie George of The George Group assists Foley on a variety of government and public policy matters as a consultant.