What You Need to Know: 2022 Midterm Election

31 May 2022 Legal News: Federal Public Affairs Publication
Author(s): John R. West Kate M. Kros

Following the conclusion of the 2022 Primary Election Cycle on September 14th, this post has been updated with all competitive House and Senate races.

On November 8th, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats will be up for reelection. Democrats, fighting political headwinds, will look to keep their control of Congress. Democrats currently have a slim edge in the House, following the New York and Alaska Special Elections, Democrats now have a 222 to 212 seat advantage. Republicans need to net just six seats to retain control. With a favorable congressional map, Republicans are poised to win back the House of Representatives. However, with the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned abortion rights precedent set in Roe v. Wade, House Democrats are betting on an energized base to help them retain control of the House. 

With the Senate split in a 50-50 tie, both parties need to net one seat to retain control. Swing seats from the 2020 election, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all have Senate seats that are in play.

See below for everything you need to know heading into the 2022 Midterm Elections, including all of the retiring Members of the House and Senate, the Primary Election calendar, and ratings for all Senate and House seats. 

Retiring House Democrats - Total Retiring House Democrats: 24

  • Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-02)
  • Rep. Cheri Bustos (IL-17)
  • Rep. David Price (NC-04)
  • Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX-30)
  • Rep. Filemon Vela (TX-34)
  • Rep. G.K. Butterfield (NC-01)
  • Rep. Jackie Speier (CA-14)
  • Rep. John Yarmuth (KY-03)
  • Rep. Mike Doyle (PA-17)
  • Rep. Ron Kind (WI-03)
  • Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR-03)
  • Rep. Alan Lowenthal (CA-47)
  • Rep. Albio Sires (NJ-08)
  • Rep. Stephanie Murphy (FL-07)
  • Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (CA-40)
  • Rep. Bobby Rush (IL-01)
  • Rep. Brenda Lawrence (MI-14)
  • Rep. Ed Perlmutter (CO-07)
  • Rep. Jerry McNerney (CA-09)
  • Rep. Jim Langevin (RI-02)
  • Rep. Jim Cooper (TN-05)
  • Rep. Kathleen Rice (NY-04)
  • Rep. Ted Deutch (FL-22)
  • Rep. Filemon Vela (TX-34)

Retiring Senate Democrats - Total Retiring Senate Democrats: 1

  • Sen. Patrick Leahy (VT)

Democrats Running for New Office - Total Democrats Running for New Office: 10

  • Rep. Connor Lamb (PA-17) – Ran for Open PA Senate Seat, Lost Democratic Nomination
  • Rep. Val Demings (FL-10) – Running for Senate, Won Democratic Nomination
  • Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-13) – Running for Senate, Won Democratic Nomination
  • Rep. Anthony Brown (MD-04) – Running for Attorney General of Maryland, Won Democratic Nomination
  • Rep. Karen Bass (CA-37) – Running for Mayor of Los Angeles
  • Rep. Charlie Crist (FL-13) – Running for Governor of Florida, Won Democratic Nomination
  • Rep. Tom Suozzi (NY-03) – Running for Governor of New York, Lost Democratic Nomination
  • Rep. Peter Welch (VT-00) – Running for Senate, Won Democratic Nomination
  • Rep. Kai Kahele (HI-02) – Running for Governor, Lost Democratic Nomination
  • Rep. Antonio Delgado (NY-19) – Appointed Lt Governor of NY

Retiring House Republicans - Total Retiring House Republicans: 15

  • Rep. Adam Kinzinger (IL-16)
  • Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (OH-16)
  • Rep. Kevin Brady (TX-08)
  • Rep. Tom Reed (NY-23)
  • Rep. Devin Nunes (CA-22)
  • Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (IN-09)
  • Rep. John Katko (NY-24)
  • Rep. Jim Hagedorn (MN-01) – Died in Office
  • Rep. Fred Keller (PA-12)
  • Rep. Van Taylor (TX-03)
  • Rep. Fred Upton (MI-06)
  • Rep. Bob Gibbs (OH-07)
  • Rep. Tom Reed (NY-23)
  • Rep. Don Young (AK-00) – Died in Office
  • Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (NE-01)
  • Rep. Jackie Walorski (IN-02) – Died in Office

Retiring Senate Republicans - Total Retiring Senate Republicans: 6

  • Sen. Richard Shelby (AL)
  • Sen. Richard Burr (NC)
  • Sen. Roy Blunt (MO)
  • Sen. Pat Toomey (PA)
  • Sen. Rob Portman (OH)
  • Sen. Jim Inhofe (OK) – Ending term early

Republicans Running for New Office - Total Republicans Running for New Office: 8

  • Rep. Jody Hice (GA-10) – Running for Georgia Secretary of State, Lost Republican Nomination

  • Rep. Lee Zeldin (NY-01) – Running for Governor of New York, Won Republican Nomination
  • Rep. Billy Long (MO-07) – Running for Senate, Lost Republican Nomination
  • Rep. Vicky Hartzler (MO-04) – Running for Senate, Lost Republican Nomination
  • Rep. Ted Budd (NC-13) – Running for Senate, Won Republican Nomination
  • Rep. Mo Brooks (AL-05) – Running for Senate, Lost Republican Nomination
  • Rep. Louie Gohmert (TX-01) – Running for Attorney General, Lost Republican Nomination
  • Rep. Markwayne Mullin (OK-03) - Running for Senate, Won Republican Nomination

2022 Primary Election Calendar

STATE

PRIMARY DATE

STATE

PRIMARY DATE

STATE

PRIMARY DATE

Texas

1-Mar

California

7-Jun

Arizona

2-Aug

Indiana

3-May

Iowa

7-Jun

Kansas

2-Aug

Ohio

3-May

Mississippi

7-Jun

Michigan

2-Aug

Nebraska

10-May

Montana

7-Jun

Missouri

2-Aug

West Virginia

10-May

New Jersey

7-Jun

Washington

2-Aug

Idaho

17-May

New Mexico

7-Jun

Tennessee

4-Aug

Kentucky

17-May

South Dakota

7-Jun

Connecticut

9-Aug

North Carolina

17-May

Maine

14-Jun

Minnesota

9-Aug

Oregon

17-May

Nevada

14-Jun

Vermont

9-Aug

Pennsylvania

17-May

North Dakota

14-Jun

Wisconsin

9-Aug

Alabama

24-May

South Carolina

14-Jun

Hawaii

13-Aug

Arkansas

24-May

District of Columbia

21-Jun

Alaska

16-Aug

Georgia

24-May

Virginia

21-Jun

Wyoming

16-Aug

 

 

Colorado

28-Jun

Florida

23-Aug

 

 

Illinois

28-Jun

Massachusetts

6-Sep

 

 

Maryland

28-Jun

Delaware

13-Sep

 

 

New York

28-Jun

New Hampshire

13-Sep

 

 

Oklahoma

28-Jun

Rhode Island

13-Sep

 

 

Utah

28-Jun

Louisiana

8-Nov

2022 Senate Election Outlook – Source: Cook Political Report

STATE

INCUMBENT

RATING

STATE

INCUMBENT

RATING

Arizona Mark Kelly Toss-Up Alaska Lisa Murkowski Strong Republican

California

Alex Padilla

Strong Democrat

Arkansas

John Boozman

Strong Republican

Colorado

Michael Bennet

Likely Democrat

Florida

Marco Rubio

Lean Republican

Connecticut

Richard Blumenthal

Strong Democrat

Idaho

Mike Crapo

Strong Republican

Georgia

Raphael Warnock

Toss-up

Indiana

Todd Young

Strong Republican

Hawaii

Brian Schatz

Strong Democrat

Iowa

Chuck Grassley

Strong Republican

Illinois

Tammy Duckworth

Strong Democrat

Kansas

Jerry Moran

Strong Republican

Maryland

Chris Van Hollen

Strong Democrat

Kentucky

Rand Paul

Strong Republican

Nevada

Catherine Cortez Masto

Toss-up

Louisiana

John Kennedy

Strong Republican

New Hampshire

Maggie Hassan

Lean Democrat

North Dakota

John Hoeven

Strong Republican

New York

Chuck Schumer

Strong Democrat

Oklahoma

James Lankford

Strong Republican

Oregon

Ron Wyden

Strong Democrat

South Carolina

Tim Scott

Strong Republican

Arizona

Mark Kelly

Lean Democrat

South Dakota

John Thune

Strong Republican

Washington

Patty Murray

Strong Democrat

Utah

Mike Lee

Strong Republican

Vermont

Open

Strong Democrat

Wisconsin

Ron Johnson

Toss-up

 

 

 

Alabama

Open

Strong Republican

 

 

 

Missouri

Open

Strong Republican

 

 

 

North Carolina

Open

Lean Republican

 

 

 

Ohio

Open

Lean Republican

 

 

 

Pennsylvania

Open

Lean Democrat

      Oklahoma Open  Strong Republican 

House Ratings for Democratic and Republican Seats - Sources: Cook Political Report, 538 Election Forecast

Lean Democratic Seats Outlook – 16 Total Seats

District

Incumbent - If Applicable

Poll Rating

CA-09

Rep. Josh Harder (D)

D, +5

CA-47

Rep. Katie Porter (D)

D, +3

CA-49

Rep. Mike Levin (D)

D, +3

CT-05

Rep. Jahana Hayes (D)

D, +3

IL-06

Merged Seat – Rep. Sean Casten (D)

D, +3

IL-13

Open Seat – Nikki Budzinski (D), Republican Not Yet Called

D, +3

MI-03  Open Seat – Hillary Scholten (D), John Gibbs (R)  D, +1 

NC-01

Open Seat: State Sen. Don Davis (D), Sandy Smith (R)

D, +2

NH-02  Rep. Ann Kuster (D)  D, +2 
NY-03 Open Seat – Robert Zimmerman (D), George Santos (R) D, +2 

NY-17

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D)

D, +3

NY-18 Open Seat – Rep. Pat Ryan (D), Colin Schmitt (R) D, +1 
OR-04  Open Seat – Val Hoyle (D), Alek Skarlatos (R)  D, +4 
OR-06  New Seat – Andrea Salinas (D), Mike Erickson (R)  D, +4 

TX-34

Merged Seat – Rep. Mayra Flores (R)

D, +9

VA-07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) D, +1

Toss-up Democratic Seats Outlook – 25 Total Seats

District

Incumbent - If Applicable

Poll Rating

AK-AL Rep. Mary Pelota (D) R, +8

CA-13

Open Seat: State Rep. Adam Gray (D), John Duarte (R)

D, +4

IL-17

Open Seat – Eric Sorenson (D), Esther Joy King (R)

D, +2

IN-01  Rep. Frank Mrvan (D)  D, +3 

KS-03

Rep. Sharice Davids (D)

R, +1

ME-02

Rep. Jared Golden (D)

R, +6

MI-07

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D)

R, +2

MI-08

Rep. Dan Kildee (D)

R, +1

MN-02

Rep. Angie Craig (D)

D, +1

NH-01

Rep. Chris Pappas (D)

Even

NV-01

Rep. Dina Titus (D)

D, +3

NV-03

Rep. Susie Lee (D)

D, +1

NV-04  Rep. Steven Horsford (D)  D, +3 
NY-19  Open Seat – Josh Riley (D), Marc Molinaro (R)  R, +3 

NV-04

Rep. Steven Horsford (D)

D, +3

OH-09

Rep. Mary Kaptur (D)

R, +3

OH-13

Open Seat: State Rep. Emilia Sykes (D), Madison Gesiotto (R)

R, +1

OR-05

Open Seat: Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)

D, +2

PA-08

Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)

R, +4

PA-17

Open Seat: Chris Deluzio (D), Jeremy Shaffer (R)

Even

RI-02

Open Seat – Seth Magaziner (D), Allan Fung (R)

D, +4

TX-28

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D)

D, +3

VA-02

Rep. Elaine Luria (D)

R, +2

WA-08

Rep. Kim Schrier (D)

D, +1

Toss-up Republican Seats Outlook – 8 Total Seats

District

Incumbent - If Applicable

Poll Rating

CA-22

Rep. David Valadao (R)

D, +5

CA-27

Rep. Mike Garcia (R)

D, +4

CO-08

Open Seat – Yadira Caraveo (D), Barbara Kirkmeyer (R)

Even

NC-13

Open Seat: State Sen. Wiley Nickel (D), Bo Hines (R)

R, +2

NE-02  Rep. Don Bacon (R)  Even 

NM-02

Rep. Yvette Herrell (R)

D, +1

NY-22

Open Seat –Brandon Williams (R), Francis Conole (D)

D, +1

OH-01

Rep. Steve Chabot (R)

D, +2

Lean Republican Seats Outlook – 11 Total Seats

District

Incumbent - If Applicable

Poll Rating

AZ-01

Rep. David Schweikert (R)

R, +2

AZ-06

Open Seat – Kirsten Engel (D), Juan Ciscomani (R)

R, +3

CA-41  Rep. Kevin Calvert (R)  R, +3 

CA-45

Rep. Michelle Steel (R)

D, +2

IA-03

Rep. Cindy Axne (D)

R, +3

NJ-07

Rep. Tom Malinowski (D)

R, +1

NY-01

Open Seat – Nicholas LaLota (R), Bridget Fleming (R)

R, +3

PA-07

Rep. Susan Wild (D)

R, +2

TX-15

Open Seat – Michelle Vallejo (D), Monica De La Cruz (R)

D, +1

WA-03  Open Seat – Joe Kent (R), Marie Perez (D)   R, +5 

WI-03

Open Seat – Derrick Van Orden (R), Brad Pfaff (D)

R, +4


Author(s)

John R. West

Public Affairs Advisor

Kate M. Kros

Public Affairs Advisor

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