Um olhar sobre o mercado de private equity dos EUA no terceiro trimestre de 2025

There is a sense of optimism in the air as we enter the final stretch of 2026. The Fed finally issued the first rate cut we have all been waiting for, and we have seen a flurry of activity on the IPO front, as well as merger and acquisition (M&A) activity picking up. As we look to 2026, Private Equity (PE) investors are hopeful this trend will continue, although there are still roadblocks to overcome.

But, to know where we are going, it’s important to know where we have been. So, PitchBook has released their Q3 2025 US PE Breakdown, taking a look back at the data and trends that defined the quarter. 

Below, we look at some of the key highlights from this report.

• In Q3, we saw 2,347 announced and closed deals, with an aggregate deal value of $331.1 billion. Deal value increased an impressive 28% QoQ and was up 38% YoY. Within this, there are some sectors that stand out. Technology transactions for the year have already surpassed last year’s total deal value, and B2B deals are holding strong as well.  

• The quarter did see a decline in exit values for the third straight quarter. In fact, exit values were down 40% from Q1 levels. Even though exit values were down for the quarter, we have already seen the PE industry surpass the total for 2024, and mega-sized exits have been critical in driving this.

• Exit counts were up 22.4% QoQ. This is the first time we have seen this kind of a spike in exit count since 2021, with PitchBook noting this indicates “more assets are beginning to move through the system.” Their data shows exit count for this year is expected to pass 2024.

• We know that 2025 has brought us some blockbuster IPOs that well exceeded expectations, and that is of course driving interest in the IPO as an exit vehicle. How impactful the government shutdown will be on this “renewed momentum” we saw in Q3 remains to be seen, but the approval process is on hold for now while the SEC and many other government agencies are shut down.

• In terms of fundraising, data shows a subdued environment, with fund count up, but capital raised down. Throughout the first three quarters of the year, 224 US PE funds closed, raising $214.4 billion. Of the funds closed YTD, 76.2% exceeded the size of their predecessor vehicles, with a median step-up of 43.4% (the strongest we have seen in years). Median fund size also reached a record, coming in at $183 million.

Everyone in the PE world is watching closely as we enter the last few months of 2025 to see if we can build off this momentum and carry it into the new year. There are certainly many factors that could have a negative or positive impact here, such as further interest rate cuts, the health of the economy, trade wars, a prolonged government shutdown, and other geopolitical unrest. However, the appetite for risk seems to be returning, and the exit window is reopening as we all learn to live with a greater sense of uncertainty.