Lo que toda multinacional debe saber sobre ... El probable punto de aterrizaje de los aranceles de Trump

One of the most common questions we get from clients is, “What is the future of the Trump administration’s tariff strategy?” With President Trump having issued over 50 tariff proclamations — a six-month sprint of more major changes to the tariff system than occurred over the prior 90 years — it can be hard to keep in mind that there will eventually be a landing spot for the tariffs. That landing spot likely will be along the lines of some combination of baseline global and sectoral tariffs, alongside a varying country-by-country tariff regime in place of the former slate of low and similar tariffs for all WTO signatories. So as an aid to helping importers risk-plan for the uncertain international trade and tariff environment, here are 16 fearless attempts to step back from the day-to-day static of new tariff proclamations to try to predict the likely landing place for the tariffs.

Where Are We Going on the Tariffs?

• Fearless Guess #1: Plan for Permanent Global Tariffs. The Trump administration seems to view the global 10% tariff as a long-term revenue measure and the “price of admission” for companies to sell into the U.S. market. Even the United Kingdom, which is one of the few countries that has a trade deficit with the United States, announced a negotiated framework settlement that preserves the 10% global tariff. The same was true for the 90-day pause for China, which eliminated the high reciprocal tariff rates but still left the global 10% tariff in place. Our best guess is that the U.S. government will become accustomed to collecting an additional $300 billion or more in tariffs and will maintain this as an ongoing revenue source, regardless of who occupies the White House in four years.

• Fearless Guess #2: The Tariffs Continue Despite the Court of International Trade Ruling. The U.S. Court of International Trade on May 28, 2025, struck down all of the Trump tariffs issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), including the global and reciprocal tariffs and the 20% fentanyl-based tariffs, ruling they exceed the president’s legal authority. But the Trump administration already has appealed this decision and has received a stay from the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, meaning the tariffs are still being collected. Our expectation is these tariffs will stay in place until the U.S. Supreme Court rules on the issue, and that as a backup plan the Trump administration will launch investigations to support alternative bases for tariffs, under either Section 232 and Section 301.

• Fearless Guess #3: Notwithstanding the foregoing, Canada and Mexico will be the exception as they reduce or even eliminate the 10% global tariff, as part of the 2026 review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, but only for USMCA-compliant goods that meet strengthened country-of-origin requirements.

• Fearless Guess #4: There will be Partial Rollbacks for Reciprocal Tariffs that Still Leave Fairly High Tariffs in Place. Despite the 90-day pause representing a potential off-ramp to permanently higher tariffs, the reciprocal tariff pause should not be viewed as a dialing down of the trade war until we see concrete evidence of negotiated and lowered long-term tariffs. There are several reasons to believe that while negotiated tariffs will decline, they will bottom out at a fairly high level:
  • The reciprocal tariffs are based on trade deficits, not actual tariff barriers. This is why countries like Switzerland and Korea, which impose very low tariffs on imports, were still hit hard with big reciprocal tariff numbers. The administration appears to view any trade deficit as needing major correction, which implies the need to maintain much more than just 10% global tariffs.
  • The originally announced vision for the reciprocal tariffs, which was to go subheading-by-subheading and identify areas where the United States was charging less than foreign countries, has gone by the wayside. Instead, there is a general sense that the reciprocal tariffs are intended to counteract any and all potential forms of favoring foreign industries (subsidized electricity, manipulated currency, and maintaining a Value-Added Tax, which generally exempts exports from paying any VAT, which President Trump views as an export subsidy), as well as any tariff or non-tariff barriers that make it harder for U.S. firms to export abroad.
  • The Trump trade officials seem to view any pain that U.S. importers are seeing as being short term, believing that there will be a renaissance of made-in-USA manufacturing that will “fix” all tariff issues in fairly short order.
  • The Trump administration views tariffs as helping with a different administration priority, which is to provide revenue to partially offset the cost of extending the 2017 tax cuts.

• Fearless Guess #5: Plan for Very High Tariffs for the Reasonably Foreseeable Future. Tariff rates are still very high, even after the reciprocal tariff pause. As a rough approximation, U.S. imports totaled $3.3 trillion last year. A 10% tariff, even taking into account the certain coming decline in imports, implies a $300 billion tax increase paid by U.S. importers. Adding in steel, aluminum, automotive tariffs, and likely Section 232 tariffs raises the total to well over $400 billion, and this is before accounting for wherever the reciprocal tariffs end up. Add it up, and CBP is on track to be collecting over $1.5 billion dollars per day in duties.

• Fearless Guess #6: Retaliation Will Not Be a Major Factor. The EU and others have announced that they will not retaliate (other than retaliating against steel and aluminum tariffs, as previously announced) — for now — given the decision to pause the reciprocal tariffs. This puts the focus squarely on negotiating reciprocal tariff reductions, not escalation, for the 90-day pause. Our prediction is that most countries will choose to negotiate the best deal they can rather than risk the type of retaliation that the Trump administration imposed against China when China originally retaliated against the U.S. tariffs.

• Fearless Guess #7: Product-Specific Exclusions Will Be Rare and Based on National Security Reasons, Not Economic Ones. It is tellingthat one of the very first tariff actions taken by the Trump administration was to wipe out all accumulated product-specific exclusions that had built up over the years from the 2018 steel and aluminum exclusions. In the current tariff proclamations, the impetus has been in the opposite direction, which is to give U.S. producers opportunities to expand the number of products covered, with no provision for any exclusions. We anticipate that few (if any) exclusions will be granted, and any that come on board will be for reasons of national security for critical items in short supply rather than for economic reasons. Importers should be looking to build flexibility, resilience, and agility into their supply chains and should be risk-planning how they would negotiate a new normal of permanently higher tariff rates, rather than hoping for the administration to reinstate the type of product exclusions seen in the first Trump administration for steel and aluminum products.

What Are the Key Concerns for Importers and Manufacturers?

• Fearless Guess #8: The Tariff Proclamations Represent a Permanent Attack on a Dominant U.S. Manufacturing Model. Many U.S. manufacturers rely on global parts and components for domestic assembly. The business strategies of multinationals often depend on purchasing parts and components through carefully thought-out international supply chains and then adding value and further manufacturing in the United States. These carefully engineered supply chains took decades to build, and tariffs threaten to upend this entire business strategy, not just margins.

• Fearless Guess #9: Recognize that Tariff Uncertainty Is a Huge Business Risk for the Reasonably Foreseeable Future. A common theme we see when engaging in tariff risk-planning exercises with clients is the difficulty of reacting to rapidly changing tariff announcements and the uncertainty of not knowing which countries will end up with high or low tariffs. This leads to delayed investments, frozen M&A activity, and general investment and planning paralysis. Companies are spending resources on cost-passing strategies and supply chain triage, not growth. This means the tariffs will have an impact far beyond the direct bottom-line impact for companies that depend on imports.

What Is the Outlook for the China Tariffs?

• Fearless Guess #10: Recognize that the Trade War Has a Sharper China Focus. Though also broad-based, the trade war has a clear China focus, which is the only country with triple-digit tariff rates. Although some of these tariffs are now temporarily suspended to support a negotiated settlement, even the remaining tariffs still add up to more than the highest reciprocal rate imposed on any other country. With China and the United States comprising 40% of global GDP, the escalation in tariffs between these two economies introduces significant systemic global trade risks. Supply chains can’t shift overnight, and companies report that for many items, including basic parts such as capacitors or resistors, no alternative sourcing exists outside of China. Even if relocation were possible, it could take years and raise permanent costs. With China preparing its producers for a long trade war, there may be a long and uncertain path toward resolution. We also would not be surprised to see the administration push other countries to take coordinated actions against China or to look for ways to impose a tariff on all Chinese-origin content, even if the good is substantially transformed in another country, as a means of pushing back on Chinese efforts to use non-U.S. markets as a way to indirectly sell to the United States.

What Is the Outlook for the USMCA review?

• Fearless Guess #11: USMCA Survives — but with Strengthened Originating Content Requirements and New Anti-China Provisions. At this point, it is clear that Canada and Mexico are receiving preferential trade treatment, as most tariffs aimed at Canada and Mexico are paused — but only for USMCA-compliant goods. Because so many U.S. companies have integrated supply chains across North America — particularly within the politically powerful automotive industry — it is likely that the administration will ultimately seek to preserve the USMCA. We do anticipate, however, that there will be substantial revisions, including strengthened country of origin rules, new measures restricting the use of Chinese parts and components, and potential new unified tariff barriers against China.

What Is the Outlook for the Automotive Tariffs?

• Fearless Guess #12: Recognize that the Automotive Sector Still Faces Major Disruption. Automotive tariffs remain a flashpoint, with ripple effects across the U.S.-Canada-Mexico supply chain. These tariffs will continue to disrupt the largest U.S. manufacturing sector, especially with the administration launching a new Section 232 investigation into medium- and heavy-duty trucks. Because of the integrated U.S.-Canada-Mexico automotive supply chains, it is impossible to divorce the upcoming 2026 USMCA review from the automotive sector, as it is the main determinant of the trade deficit with Mexico. Chinese investment in Mexico, and the use of Chinese-origin parts and components in Mexico, have been major trends over the last six years as Chinese companies have reacted to the Section 301 tariffs imposed in the first Trump administration. So one likely area of compromise will be limitations on Chinese investment in North America and the use of Chinese-origin parts and components to qualify for USMCA-compliant status.

What Is the Outlook for Additional Section 232 Tariffs?

• Fearless Guess #13: Plan on More Section 232 Tariffs. We do not believe the incessant drumbeat of new Section 232 investigations is at an end. Expect the administration to continue to announce more investigations, particularly in light of the Court of International Trade striking down the expansive use of IEEPA to support general tariff increases.

• Fearless Guess #14: Recognize that Lobbying Will Be Intense — and You May Need to Get Involved. All or nearly all countries are negotiating. Industries will jockey to receive favorable treatment for their own concerns. Thus, with global tariffs on the table, expect a surge of special-interest activity, as industries and companies race to secure carveouts, exemptions, or favorable tariff treatment. Negotiations will open a free-for-all of companies and industries pushing to get favored status. The same will be true as various Section 232 investigations play out.

What Coping Mechanisms Should Importers Be Taking?

• Fearless Guess #15: Recognize that the Risks of Being an Importer Have Sharply Risen — and that Customs Compliance and Accuracy in Import Operations Is More Important than Ever. In a high-tariff environment, it is essential to have complete accuracy for all imports, as errors can quickly result in large underpayments, associated interest, and penalties. Further, the Trump tariff proclamations have directed Customs to focus on ensuring full collection and compliance with the new tariff requirements, often directing Customs to impose penalties at the maximum level allowed without considering any mitigating factors. As a result, it is essential that importers carefully review the accuracy of all import-related information, especially for the critical areas of country of origin, valuation of the product, and USMCA compliance. This is especially important when importing goods made in third countries using Chinese parts and components, as these goods could be considered to still be Chinese in origin and thus subject to the high Chinese tariffs unless they were substantially transformed in the third country. Because Customs is carefully scrutinizing all imports for potential underpayments of the new tariffs, importers should be doing the same.

• Fearless Guess #16: The Importance of Filing Voluntary Self-Disclosures Has Never Been Greater. Importers are required to file all import-related information electronically in the Customs entry portal known as the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE). Customs uses sophisticated data mining to find anomalies and potential tariff underpayments. With Customs being directed to emphasize enforcing the new tariffs, and to apply the maximum penalties without considering mitigating factors, Customs will be using ACE data frequently to target tariff underpayments and to initiate investigations to seek the recovery of underpaid tariffs. The only way to avoid these high penalties is for importers to file voluntary self-disclosures, which lock in the ability to close out administrative disclosures with the payment of back duties and interest but with no penalty. We accordingly expect disclosures will sharply increase as importers take steps to avoid potential penalties.

The Foley International Government Enforcement Defense & Investigations Team is monitoring all tariff-related developments, including any modifications, clarifications/guidance, or additional measures introduced by the Trump administration, which we are posting as they occur on our Tariff & International Trade Resources blog. As new information becomes available, we will provide updates and analysis to help importers navigate the evolving international trade paradigm, including for new tariffs.

Our white paper on “Managing Import and Tariff Risks During a Trade War” outlines a 12-step plan to provide practical steps to help importers navigate the tariff and international trade risks in the current tariff and trade environment, while the companion white paper on “Managing Supply Chain Integrity Risks” provides practical advice to deal with heightened supply chain risks pertaining to goods imported into the United States, including the increasing use of detentions by Customs.

If you would like to see future updates regarding “What Every Multinational Company Needs to Know” and other updates about operating in today’s complicated international trade world, please sign up for our Tariff & International Trade blog.