Politics: Two New Polls Differ on U.S. Senate Contest but Both Show Bill McCollum Leading in the Race for Governor
Two new polls show different outcomes in the three-way race for the U.S. Senate between former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-Miami), Governor Charlie Crist, the former Republican now running with no party affiliation, and the leading Democratic candidate, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17th Congressional District). Both polls show Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum continuing to lead in the contest to succeed Gov. Crist.
In a survey of 500 likely voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports on May 16, 2010, Mr. Rubio was supported by 39 percent of respondents, Gov. Crist was supported by 31 percent, and Rep. Meek was supported by 18 percent, with 12 percent undecided. The May 16 results were similar to an April 21 Rasmussen poll in which Mr. Rubio led Gov. Crist by 37 percent to 30 percent. A May 3 Rasmussen poll, in which Gov. Crist led Mr. Rubio by 38 percent to 34 percent, may have reflected a temporary bounce from the governor’s April 30 announcement of his decision to leave the Republican Party and run as a no-party-affiliation candidate.
The May 16 Rasmussen poll also showed the leading Republican candidate for governor, Attorney General McCollum, leading his Democratic opponent, Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, by 43 percent to 35 percent, with 11 percent favoring some other candidate and 11 percent undecided. In an April 15 Rasmussen poll, Attorney General McCollum led CFO Sink by 45 percent to 38 percent.
Rasmussen Reports also polled on a hypothetical matchup between CFO Sink and another Republican gubernatorial candidate, businessman Rick Scott. Mr. Scott is running an extensive media campaign, having reportedly spent $4.7 million in one month on radio and television. In the Rasmussen poll, Mr. Scott led CFO Sink by 41 percent to 40 percent, with seven percent favoring some other candidate and 12 percent undecided.
The margin of error for the Rasmussen poll is 4.5 percentage points.
A poll of 607 registered voters conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs from May 14 through May 18, 2010 for several Florida newspapers and television stations showed Gov. Crist leading in the Senate race. According to the Ipsos poll, 30 percent of respondents favored Gov. Crist, 27 percent favored Mr. Rubio, and 15 percent favored Mr. Meek.
The Ipsos poll also indicated a closer race for governor, showing Attorney General McCollum with 34 percent of the general election vote and CFO Sink with 32 percent. In the Republican primary contest between the attorney general, Mr. Scott, and Sen. Paula Dockery (R-Lakeland), Attorney General McCollum had the support of 46 percent of the registered Republicans surveyed, Mr. Scott had the support of 22 percent, and Sen. Dockery had the support of three percent. On May 24, Sen. Dockery announced that she was ending her campaign for governor.
The Ipsos survey also polled on two of the more controversial current political issues. Respondents were asked whether Gov. Crist should sign or veto recently enacted legislation (HB 1143) that prohibits the use of state funds for abortions and generally requires women seeking abortions to undergo and review ultrasound tests. Gov. Crist has made several public statements indicating that he intends to veto the bill, which he called “almost mean-spirited.” Among all respondents, 55 percent favored a veto, 31 percent opposed a veto, and 14 percent were undecided. A veto also was favored by 60 percent of Democrats and 47 percent of Republicans.
The survey also asked about a possible amendment to the Florida Constitution that would ban oil and gas drilling within state waters. Gov. Crist has said he intends to call a special session of the Legislature to propose such an amendment. The poll showed an even split, with 44 percent of respondents supporting a constitutional ban on drilling, 44 percent opposed, and 11 percent undecided. Democrats supported the ban by a margin of 48 percent to 41 percent, while 38 percent of Republicans supported the ban and 51 percent were opposed.
The Ipsos poll of registered voters had a margin of error of four percentage points, except that the margin of error for Democrat-only and Republican-only responses was six percentage points.
In another development that may affect the U.S. Senate contest, the Florida AFL-CIO on May 23 voted to endorse Rep. Meek, even though the state’s largest teachers’ union, the Florida Education Association, had on the previous day decided to endorse both Rep. Meek and Gov. Crist.
Oil Spill: Gov. Crist Delays Call for a Special Legislative Session on Offshore Drilling
On May 19, Gov. Crist announced that, while he still want to call the Florida Legislature into a special session to propose a constitutional ban on offshore oil and gas drilling, his original suggestion for a session beginning as early as May 24 was overly optimistic. In a meeting with the editorial board of the Miami Herald, Gov. Crist said that he would prefer not to call a session until there was a consensus about legislative proposals. He told the editorial board that Senate leaders were amenable to the idea of amending the state constitution to prohibit drilling but that he did not yet have the support of the House.
Drilling within Florida waters is currently prohibited by state statute.
Earlier in the week, the governor met with Tony Hayward, CEO of BP PLC, owner of the well that began releasing oil into the Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded on April 20. Mr. Hayward promised that BP would give the state $25 million to support tourism-related advertising, in addition to the $25 million in recovery funds that the company had already committed to the state.
Visit Florida, the state tourism agency, ran a $2.5 million advertising campaign in several southeastern markets during the weekend of May 21 to 23, but had no immediate plans for spending the extra funds promised by BP. A spokesperson for Visit Florida said the agency had not received any direction from the governor’s office on how much of the funding would be used for statewide promotion and how much would go to local tourism agencies.
Economy: Florida’s Unemployment Rate Dropped to 12.0 Percent in April But Remains Fifth Highest in the Nation
Florida’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 12.0 percent in April 2010, according to a report released on May 21 by the Agency for Workforce Innovation. The April rate was 0.3 percentage points below the revised March 2010 rate of 12.3 percent and 2.3 percentage points higher than the revised April 2009 rate of 9.7 percent. The March 2010 unemployment rate was the highest rate since state unemployment data began being compiled in 1970.
The Florida unemployment rate is now 2.1 percentage points higher than the national rate of 9.9 percent.
Florida’s unemployment rate remains fifth highest in the nation, after Michigan (14.0 percent), Nevada (13.7 percent), California (12.6 percent), and Rhode Island (12.5 percent).
The counties with the highest unemployment rates were Flagler County (15.4 percent), Hernando County (14.3 percent), Marion County (13.9 percent), St. Lucie County (13.7 percent), and Hendry County (13.3 percent). The counties with the lowest unemployment were Liberty County (6.7 percent), Monroe County (7.2 percent), Alachua County (7.4 percent), Leon County (7.5 percent), and Okaloosa County (7.6 percent).
Utility Regulation: Sen. Lee Constantine and Former Sen. Curt Kiser Are Among the Applicants for Public Service Commission Vacancies
Applicants to fill two vacancies on the Florida Public Service Commission (PSC) resulting from the Senate’s decision to deny confirmation to two of Gov. Crist’s appointees include a term-limited senator and a former senator who currently serves as the PSC’s general counsel.
Term limits prevent Sen. Lee Constantine (R-Altamonte Springs), who has served in the Legislature since 1992, from running for reelection to the Senate. He resigned the chairmanship of the PSC Nominating Council in order to apply for the PSC vacancy. Curt Kiser, a former senator and current PSC general counsel, also has applied. He served in the Legislature for 22 years, including 17 years as a member of the PSC Nominating Council.
Other applicants include state Rep. Ronald A. Brisé (D-North Miami), former PSC Executive Director Mary Bane, former PSC Commissioner Leon Jacobs.
The nominating council will send Gov. Crist three nominees for each vacancy.
Separately, the nominating council will accept applications for the commission seats currently held by Nancy Argenziano and Nathan Skop, whose terms expire on January 1, 2011. Both commissioners have said they intend to reapply.
Public Policy News Alert is part of our ongoing commitment to providing up-to-the-minute information about pressing concerns or industry issues affecting our clients and our colleagues. If you have any questions about this alert or would like to discuss these topics further, please contact your Foley attorney or any of the following individuals:
Marnie George
Tallahassee, Florida
850.513.3398
[email protected]
Michael P. Harrell
Tallahassee, Florida
850.513.3373
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Robert H. Hosay
Tallahassee, Florida
850.513.3382
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Jonathan P. Kilman
Orlando, Florida
407.244.3256
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Thomas J. Maida
Tallahassee, Florida
850.513.3377
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Leonard E. Schulte
Tallahassee, Florida
850.513.3380
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Marnie George of The George Group assists Foley on a variety of government and public policy matters as a consultant.