Atualização da Foley Automotive

Análise de Julie Dautermann, Analista de Inteligência Competitiva

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Principais desenvolvimentos

• Foley & Lardner announced the 2024 installment of its Auto Trends series—A Year in Review: Updates, Trends and the Road Ahead. This series delves deep into the transformative forces shaping the automotive world by providing weekly insights and analysis tailored to help business leaders navigate a shifting market landscape. The most recent article in the series provides insights on regulatory developments intended to ensure supply chain integrity and eliminate forced labor. Click HERE to subscribe to updates.
• U.S. new light-vehicle sales reached a SAAR of 16.5 million units in November 2024, representing the highest volumes since May 2021, according to an update from the National Automobile Dealers Association. Consumers benefited from increased OEM discounts, as the average new-vehicle incentive package reached $3,291 in November, up 42% year-over-year.
• The combined category of hybrids, plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles accounted for 19.7% of all new vehicles sold between January and November 2024. Nearly 10% of new vehicles sold in November were hybrids, up by 2.4 percentage points YOY, and year-to-date hybrid volumes have increased 35% YOY.
• New-vehicle prices could increase by an average of $3,000 if President-elect Donald Trump implements proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. S&P Global estimates American and European automakers could lose up to 17% of their combined annual core profits if these tariffs are imposed. Among U.S. automakers, GM and Stellantis are “particularly exposed due to the volume of cars they assemble in Mexico, and, partly, Canada.”
• Mexico’s automotive exports to the U.S. include an estimated $32 billion of U.S.-origin content, according to an assessment of the potential implications of proposed U.S. import tariffs. The analysis notes there is a “high proportion of U.S.-origin parts embedded in Mexico’s motor vehicle exports,” and the “U.S. suppliers of these parts could soon be caught in the crossfire of Trump’s trade war.”
• The 12 major automakers with manufacturing plants in Mexico produced 3.4 million vehicles between January and October 2024, up 5.5% YOY, while exports in the same period rose 6.8% YOY to a record 2.9 million units, according to data from the Mexican Automotive Industry Association (AMIA).
• The president of Canada’s largest private sector union, Unifor, referred to President-elect Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. as a “disaster” that would threaten automotive supply chains. Canada is expected to produce 1.3 million vehicles in 2024, down from pre-pandemic volumes of over 2 million units annually, and the Canadian auto parts industry supplies factories throughout North America.
• S&P Global Mobility analysis indicates the volume of foreign direct investment in Mexico could be impacted by uncertainty over the renegotiation process for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement that is scheduled to begin in July 2026.
• GM expects to incur over $5 billion in restructuring losses and write-downs for its joint venture business in China. While GM was formerly a key player in China, CEO Mary Barra recently stated China’s crowded market is a “race to the bottom,” amid global automakers’ market share losses and increased domestic competition in the nation. New light-vehicle sales in China across all automakers rose 18% YOY in November, according to preliminary estimates from China’s Passenger Car Association.
• Several large auto suppliers expect to prioritize shareholder returns and disciplined balance sheets over capital expenditures for higher-risk programs in the near-term, according to a report in Automotive News.
• Crain’s Detroit reports that a number of smaller suppliers that did not invest in EV programs are optimistic about earnings potential during the second Trump administration.

OEMs/fornecedores  

• Stellantis chief financial officer Doug Ostermann stated the automaker needs to “build back trust” with stakeholders that include suppliers, dealers and unions, following the abrupt resignation of CEO Carlos Tavares and amid a reshuffling of executive positions in North America. Stellantis is under pressure in areas that include addressing low sales in the U.S., improving its vehicle portfolio and balancing inventory levels.
• Volkswagen workers are participating in strikes at plants across Germany, as labor leaders and executives continue negotiations over cost-cutting measures that include potential factory closures and cuts to jobs and salaries. VW faces challenges that include declining demand in several markets, and increased competition from Chinese automakers. On average, new light-vehicle sales in Europe have recently been nearly 20% below pre-pandemic levels, as consumers postpone big-ticket purchases amid inflationary pressures.
• Recently announced recalls in North America include: over 300,000 Ram trucks to address a potential malfunction in antilock brake systems; over 220,000 Hyundai vehicles due to rearview cameras that may not accurately display images; and over 130,000 GM heavy-duty pickup trucks as the result of tailgates that may open unexpectedly. 
• Volkswagen exited a joint venture plant in a region of China beset by forced labor claims. The automaker cited “economic reasons” for the decision, and noted the facility in China’s Xinjiang region did not support consumer demand for EVs in the nation.

Veículos eléctricos e tecnologias de baixas emissões

• The incoming Trump administration is evaluating whether to cancel the U.S. Postal Service’s contracts to electrify portions of its delivery fleet, according to unnamed sources in Reuters.
• The U.S. Department of Energy is reported to be negotiating with Stellantis to finalize a $335 million DOE grant by year-end that is intended to help reopen the Belvidere Assembly plant in Illinois. The funding was announced in July 2024, and it was awarded through the DOE’s Domestic Manufacturing Conversion Grant Program in support of EV production.
• Benchmark Mineral Intelligence predicts the second Trump administration could oversee “the first ever U.S. battery boom,” as 1,300 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of batteries for EVs and energy storage applications are expected to come online by 2030 as the result of investments from the Inflation Reduction Act.
• The CEO of battery component recycler Redwood Materials is hopeful the second Trump administration could support the localization of the supply chains for domestic battery factories.
• Bloomberg reports a number of South Korean companies could reconsider up to $54 billion in planned U.S. battery plant investments if President-elect Trump eliminates government incentives for the EV market.
• GM will sell its stake in the Ultium Cells battery plant under construction near Lansing, Michigan to joint venture partner LG Energy Solution.
• The DOE announced a conditional commitment for a loan of up to $7.54 billion for Stellantis NV and joint venture partner Samsung SDI to build two EV battery plants in Kokomo, Indiana.
• Reuters reports Chinese automakers are developing more hybrid models for export to the European market, in a pivot to address the European Union’s import tariffs on Chinese-made battery electric vehicles.
• Daimler Truck subsidiary Detroit Diesel will invest $285 million to expand its Redford Township, MI plant and increase EV battery capabilities.
• J.D. Power’s E-Vision Intelligence report found that eligibility for the $7,500 federal Clean Vehicle Tax Credit was more significant to consumers’ EV purchase decisions this year than the overall vehicle price.
• EV charging adapters that are not automaker-approved have wide variations in quality that could cause safety and overheating hazards for charging ports and vehicles.
• Models from Audi, Chevrolet and Genesis were among Consumer Reports’ top-ranked new EVs based on the speed of miles of range added per minute at a DC fast charger.  
• Rivian Automotive opened its first fast-charge location in Joshua Tree, CA, that will serve EVs from its customers and other automakers. Rivian plans to establish up to 3,500 chargers at 600 sites in U.S. locations near travel hubs and sites popular with off-roaders.
• GM suggested it could adjust plans for certain electric and hybrid models in North America in the near-term if the Trump administration eases fuel economy and vehicle emissions regulations. The automaker expects to end 2024 with a 12% U.S. market share in EVs. 

Tecnologias de veículos automatizados, autónomos ou conectados

• Self-driving truck developer Torc Robotics plans to open offices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and Ann Arbor, Michigan, in the first half of 2025. The Daimler Truck subsidiary is currently testing autonomous trucks on a closed-course route in Texas to support the launch of commercial operations by 2027.
• Trade tensions between the U.S. and China may cause developers of lidar and other advanced driving technologies to reassess supply chains, according to commentary during a recent Alliance for Automotive Innovation conference.
• Chinese autonomous driving startup Pony AI Inc. raised $413.4 million in a U.S. initial public offering and concurrent private placements.

Tendências do mercado e regulamentação

• The head of Mexican joint venture Giant Motors Latinoamérica suggested the company is equipped to respond to new tariffs, stating, “If they change the rules, we are ready to play by them.” Giant Motors currently operates Mexico’s only assembly plant for Chinese vehicles, and it produces models for Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp. (JAC) that are sold within Mexico.
• The Steel Manufacturers Association urged President-elect Trump to raise tariffs on imported steel to strengthen U.S. manufacturing.
• Nippon Steel expressed confidence its $14.1 billion acquisition of United States Steel Corp. will close by the end of 2024, amid statements of opposition from both President Biden and President-elect Trump. 
• The Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that 2024 had the highest volume of consumer auto loan rejections since its survey began in 2013.
• Subaru, Lexus, Toyota, Honda and Acura are the top five brands in the annual automotive reliability ranking from Consumer Reports.