Foley Automotive Update

Analyse von Julie Dautermann, Competitive Intelligence Analyst

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Wichtige Entwicklungen

• Foley & Lardner assessed automotive supply chain implications of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Final Rule prohibiting the import and sale of connected vehicles and related components linked to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia.
• Foley & Lardner evaluated a number of import risks and opportunities under the Trump administration. On January 20, President Trump stated he intends to establish 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on February 1. Trump on January 20 indicated he is “not ready” to impose universal tariffs, but he subsequently mentioned the possibility of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, as well as potential levies on goods from the European Union. Multiple federal agencies were directed to evaluate U.S. trade policy and provide recommendations by April 1.
• The Canadian government developed a draft list of C$150 billion ($105 billion) of U.S.-manufactured items that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs.
• Unspecified sources in The Wall Street Journal suggest the Trump administration may pursue early renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement instead of maintaining the timetable for statutory review scheduled in 2026.
• Foley & Lardner reviewed potential scenarios for the regulation of vehicle, engine, and equipment emissions under the new Trump administration.
• President Trump on January 20 issued a broad Unleashing American Energy executive order directing all agencies to “immediately pause the disbursement of funds appropriated through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (Public Law 117-169) or the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (Public Law 117-58), including but not limited to funds for electric vehicle charging stations.” The same order called for “terminating, where appropriate, state emissions waivers that function to limit sales of gasoline-powered automobiles,” and it revoked an August 2021 executive order that established a goal for 50% of all new light vehicle sales to be zero-emissions by 2030.
• S&P Global Mobility assessed the automotive industry impact of the executive orders and announcements issued during Trump’s first day in office. Shifting policies in areas that include tariffs and emissions regulations are expected to present notable risk to suppliers in 2025.
• Bain & Company analysis published this month suggests a growing number of automotive suppliers are at risk for liquidity challenges that will require OEM support to prevent insolvency.
• Cox Automotive estimates total U.S. new-light-vehicle inventory reached 2.88 million units at the start of January 2025, representing a 75 days’ supply industrywide and an increase of 18% compared to January 2024.
• Foley & Lardner provided an overview of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) final rule formalizing its whistleblower program under the Motor Vehicle Safety Whistleblower Act.
• Auto industry consolidation may increase in the coming decade, due to factors that include the high development costs for automated, autonomous and software-defined vehicles, as well as increased competition from Chinese automakers. Certain legacy automakers may experience a “slow contraction” as they eliminate brands, close plants, and exit underperforming markets.
• Market research firm Gartner predicts several North American and European auto plants are at risk of being closed or sold in 2025, as automobile brands struggle with overcapacity and price competition.
• The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) estimates China’s automotive exports rose 19% year-over-year in 2024, and exports across all engine types are forecast to rise by 5.8% YOY to 6.2 million units in 2025. CAAM predicts vehicle sales within China will increase 4.7% YOY to 32.9 million units in 2025, from sales of just under 23 million units in 2024. The nation’s domestic battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales are projected to rise 24.4% in 2025, compared to a jump of 35.5% in 2024.
• New vehicle registrations in the European Union reached 10.6 million units in 2024, up by 0.8% YOY, according to analysis from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). In 2024, registrations of BEVs fell by 5.9%, PHEV registrations fell by 6.8%, and hybrid-electric registrations increased 20.9%.

OEMs/Lieferanten

• Chrysler owner Stellantis, in a January 9 brief, asked a California federal judge to preserve its lawsuit accusing the United Auto Workers of making an unlawful strike threat. Foley & Lardner recently provided a summary of the ongoing litigation between Stellantis and the UAW and its local chapters regarding the union’s threats to strike if Stellantis does not move forward with planned investment in its U.S. operations. 
• BMW, GM and Volkswagen reported their China sales volumes declined by double-digit percentages YOY in 2024.
• Toronto-based Markdom Michigan Plastics Inc. will invest over $19 million to establish its first U.S. operations near Lansing, Michigan later this year.
• Italian automotive design and engineering company Italdesign will invest $20 million to establish its new U.S. headquarters in Bloomfield, Michigan.
• Nikkei Asia reports certain automotive suppliers from China are evaluating manufacturing opportunities in the U.S. in pursuit of growth opportunities. 
• Aptiv announced plans to separate its electrical distribution systems business into a new company.
• Following the departure of former CEO Carlos Tavares, Stellantis has pursued plans to strengthen its U.S. brands by reviving certain Jeep and Dodge models. Separately, a Stellantis executive indicated that certain vehicle production decisions are on hold while the automaker awaits clarity on the Trump administration’s policies. 

Elektrofahrzeuge und emissionsarme Technologie

• Global sales of BEVs and PHEVs rose 25% to over 17 million units in 2024.
• Global BEV sales in 2025 are forecast to represent 16% of total light-vehicle sales, according to analysis from S&P Global Mobility and BloombergNEF. The combined category of BEVs and PHEVs could rise 30% YOY to 22 million units globally in 2025, for a global light-vehicle market share of 27%. However, S&P expects significant cuts in North American BEVs, “with over 1.7 million units of dedicated BEV nameplate production removed from projections through 2032.”
• Automotive News provided a summary of EV launch delays and production pauses.
• The California Air Resources Board withdrew an Environmental Protection Agency waiver request to implement the Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) rule. The ACF regulation would have required medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets in the state to adopt a phased transition to zero-emission vehicles. A separate rule, the Advanced Clean Trucks regulation, requires manufacturers to only sell zero-emission trucks in the state beginning in the 2036 model year.
• UBS estimates Tesla could earn over $1 billion in compensation this year from competing automakers that pursue regulatory credits in response to stricter emissions standards in the European Union. The ACEA recently stated the industry’s most urgent action for EU leaders is identifying a solution for “compliance burden relief” in regard to 2025 CO₂ emissions targets in the bloc, and pursuing realistic decarbonization goals that are not “penalty-driven.” 
• Lithium-ion battery prices are projected to decline 3% to roughly $112 per kilowatt-hour in 2025, compared to declines of 20% in 2024 and 13% in 2023.
• Robert Bosch LLC, a part of the Bosch Group, will invest $13 million to create a Regional Hydrogen Research and Development Hub at the company’s headquarters in Farmington Hills, Michigan.
• GM signed a multibillion-dollar supply deal with Norway’s Vianode for synthetic anode graphite battery materials in North America beginning in 2027. The supply agreement is expected to reduce reliance on imports of the critical mineral from China.
• Panasonic Energy intends to eliminate reliance on Chinese suppliers in its U.S. vehicle battery production.
• Rivian closed a loan agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy for up to $6.6 billion to support construction of a new manufacturing facility in Georgia.
• European battery recycling company Envergia Inc. will invest $33 million to establish an EV battery recycling facility in Detroit.
• Reuters reports Ford joint venture battery plant workers in Kentucky petitioned the National Labor Relations Board for a vote to unionize with the UAW.
• Canada’s federal rebate program for qualifying EV purchases was abruptly paused this month when the program ran out of funding ahead of its original termination date of March 31, 2025. The Incentives for Zero Emissions Vehicles program (iZEV) received consumer rebate claims that surpassed $1 billion last year.
• The Associated Press provided an update on the electric vehicle production plans and investments of electronics manufacturers, including Foxconn, Huawei Technologies, and Xiaomi.

Autonome Technologien und Fahrzeugsoftware

• The proportion of vehicles impacted by software-related recalls rose to 42% in 2024, up from 13% in 2023, according to a report in Forbes. The article estimated that as little as 13% of software-related recalls can be resolved through over-the-air (OTA) updates.
• Over half of the U.S. survey respondents in Deloitte’s 2025 Global Automotive Consumer Study would be willing to pay more for connected services such as collision detection, automatic detection of vehicles and pedestrians, and anti-theft tracking. However, a significant percentage of respondents do not trust automakers, dealers, financial services providers, insurance companies or other entities to manage drivers’ connected vehicle data, and this could present challenges for companies hoping to monetize certain connected services.
• Autonomous tech company Aurora announced a strategic partnership with Continental and NVIDIA to deploy driverless trucks at scale, beginning in 2027.

Markttrends und Regulierung

• The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reached a settlement with GM over claims the automaker collected and shared drivers’ location and driving data without consent. As part of the settlement, the FTC will ban GM from sharing drivers’ data with consumer reporting agencies.
• The Alliance for Automotive Innovation filed a petition with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia to overturn a Biden administration regulation that requires nearly all new light vehicles to be equipped with “no-contact” automatic emergency braking (AEB) systems by 2029. The finalized AEB rule “requires all cars be able to stop and avoid contact with a vehicle in front of them up to 62 miles per hour and that the systems must detect pedestrians in both daylight and darkness.” 
• The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) averted a strike and tentatively agreed to a six-year labor contract covering U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports.
• NHTSA is investigating reports of engine failures in certain GM models that could affect over 877,000 vehicles produced between 2019 and 2024.