A Preview of California House Races, 2022 Midterm Elections

30 September 2022 Legal News: Federal Public Affairs Publication
Author(s): John R. West Kate M. Kros Dennis A. Cardoza Jennifer F. Walsh

Updated as of September 26th, 2022. Ratings are from FiveThirtyEight and Cook Political Report

As it has in the past, California has proven to be one of the key states that ultimately determines control of the House. This year is no different, with competitive races in the Central Valley and Orange County, both parties look to pick up seats in a year that is proving to be extremely competitive. See below for an election breakdown of each congressional district for the 2022 Midterm Elections.

District 1:

  • District is rated Strong Republican (R+24)
    • Republican: Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 1st district.
    • Democrat: Max Steiner (D)

District 2:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+50)
    • Democrat: Rep. Jared Huffman (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 2nd district.
    • Republican: Douglas Brower (R)

District 3:

  • Open seat. District is rated as Likely Republican (R+7.8)
    • Republican: Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R)
    • Democrat: Kermit Jones (D)

District 4:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+42)
    • Democrat: Rep. Mike Thompson (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 5th district.
    • Republican: Matt Brock (R)

District 5:

  • District is rated as Solid Republican (R+23)
    • Republican: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 4th district.
    • Democrat: Michael Barkley (D).

District 6:

  • District is rated as Solid Democrat (D+20)
    • Democrat: Rep. Ami Bera (D) – Incumbent, currently represents 7th district.
    • Republican: Tanika Hamilton (R)

District 7:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+40)
    • Democrat: Rep. Doris Matsui (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 6th district.
    • Republican: Max Semenenko (R)

District 8:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+50)
    • Democrat: Rep. John Garamendi (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 3rd district.
    • Republican: Rudy Recile (R)

District 9:

  • District is rated as Likely Democrat (D+5.8) – Key Race
    • Democrat: Rep. Josh Harder (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 10th district.
    • Republican: Tom Patti (R) – San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors
    • Incumbent Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) is retiring
  • Cook Political has this race rated “Lean Democrat”

District 10:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+34)
    • Democrat: Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 11th district.
    • Green Party: Michael Ernest Kerr

District 11:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+76)
    • Democrat: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D) – Incumbent, currently represents CA-12.
    • Republican: John Dennis (R)

District 12:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+80)
    • Democrat: Rep. Barbara Lee (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 13th district.
    • Republican: Stephen Slauson (R)

District 13:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Lean Democrat (D+3.8) – Key Race
    • Democrat: Assemblyman Adam Gray (D).
    • Republican: John Duarte (R) – Businessman
  • Cook Political has this race rated as a “Toss-up”

District 14:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+45)
    • Democrat: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 15th district.
    • Republican: Not yet determined

District 15:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+54)
    • Leading Democrat: State Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Kevin Mullin (D)
    • Democrat: David Canepa (D)
  • Incumbent Rep. Jackie Speier (D) is retiring, Mullin is very favored to win.

District 16:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+40)
    • Democrat: Rep. Anna Eshoo (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 18th district.
    • Republican: Not yet determined

District 17:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+45)
    • Democrat: Rep. Ro Khanna (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 17th district.
    • Democrat: Rishi Kumar (D)

District 18:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+42)
    • Democrat: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 19th district.
    • Republican: Peter Hernandez (R)

District 19:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+42)
    • Democrat: Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 20th district.
    • Republican: Jeff Gorman (R)

District 20:

  • District is rated as Strong Republican (R+31)
    • Republican: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R) – currently represents 23rd district.
    • Democrat: Marisa Wood (R)

District 21:

  • Open Seats, District is rated as Solid Democrat (D+16)
    • Democrat: Rep. Jim Costa (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 16th district.
    • Republican: Michael Maher (R)
    • Former State Assembly Member Connie Conway (R) won the special election to replace Rep. Devin Nunes. Conway will vacate the seat.

District 22:

  • District is rated as Toss-up (D+1) – Key Race
    • Democrat: Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield)
    • Republican: Rep. David Valadao (R) – Incumbent, currently represents 21st district

District 23:

  • District is rated as Likely Republican (R+21)
    • Republican: Rep. Jay Obernolte (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 8th district
    • Democrat: Derek Marshall (R)

District 24:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+30)
    • Democrat: Rep. Salud Carbajal (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 24th district.
    • Republican: Brad Allen (R)

District 25:

  • District is rated as Likely Democrat (D+15)
    • Democrat: Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 36th district.
    • Republican: Brian Hawkins (R)

District 26:

  • District is rated as Solid Democrat (D+17)
    • Democrat: Rep. Julia Brownley (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 26th district.
    • Republican: Matt Jacobs (R)

District 27:

  • District is rated as Toss-up (R+1) – Key Race
    • Republican: Rep. Mike Garcia (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 25th district.
    • Democrat: Christy Smith (D) – ran against Garcia in 2018 and 2020.

District 28:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+40)
    • Democrat: Rep. Judy Chu (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 27th district.
    • Republican: Wes Hallman (R)

District 29:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+50)
    • Leading Democrat: Rep. Tony Cardenas (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 29th district.
    • Democrat: Angelica Maria Duenas (D)

District 30:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+50)
    • Leading Democrat: Rep. Adam Schiff (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 28th district.
    • Democrat: G. Pudlo (D)

District 31:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+30)
    • Democrat: Rep. Grace Napolitano (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 32nd district.
    • Republican: Daniel Bocic Martinez (R)

District 32:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+43)
    • Democrat: Rep. Brad Sherman (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 30th district.
    • Republican: Lucie Lapointe Volotzky (R)

District 33:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+25)
    • Democrat: Rep. Pete Aguilar (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 13th district.
    • Republican: John Mark Porter (R)

District 34:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+63)
    • Leading Democrat: Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 34th district.
    • Democrat: David Kim (D)

District 35:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+30)
    • Democrat: Rep. Norma Torres (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 13th district.
    • Republican: Mike Cargyle (R)

District 36:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+33)
    • Democrat: Rep. Ted Lieu (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 33rd district.
    • Republican: Joe E. Collins III (R) - Veteran

District 37:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+72)
    • Leading Democrat: State Senator Sydney Kamlager (D)
    • Democrat: Jan Perry (D)
  • Incumbent Rep. Karen Bass (D) has announced that she will retire to run for mayor of Los Angeles.

District 38:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+25)
    • Democrat: Rep. Linda Sanchez (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 38th district.
    • Republican: Eric J. Ching (R)

District 39:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+25)
    • Democrat: Rep. Mark Takano (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 39th district.
    • Republican: TSgt. Aja Smith (R) - Veteran

District 40:

  • District is rated as Likely Republican (R+13) – Key Race
    • Republican Rep. Young Kim (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 39th district.
    • Democrat: Asif Mahmood (D)
  • This district will combine with the 47th district and form the 42nd congressional district.
    • Incumbent Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) is retiring.

District 41:

  • District is rated as Likely Republican (R+8) – Key Race
    • Republican: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 42nd district.
    • Democrat: Will Rollins (D)

District 42:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+37)
    • Democrat: Robert Garcia (D) – Long Beach Mayor.
    • Republican: John Briscoe (R)
  • This district is now made up of both the 40th and the 47th congressional district. Both incumbents retiring.

District 43:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+61)
    • Democrat: Rep. Maxine Waters (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 43rd district.
    • Republican: Omar Navarro (R)

District 44:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+55)
    • Democrat: Rep. Nanette Barragan (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 44th district.
    • Republican: Paul Jones (R)

District 45:

  • District is rated as Toss-up (R+5) – Key Race
    • Republican: Rep. Michelle Steel (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 48th district.
    • Democrat: Jay Chen (D) – Veteran

District 46:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+33)
    • Leading Democrat: Rep. Lou Correa (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 46th district.
    • Republican: Christopher J. Gonzalez (R)

District 47:

  • District is rated as Lean Democrat (D+7) – Key Race
    • Democrat: Rep. Katie Porter (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 13th district.
    • Republican: former State Assemblyman and Republican Leader Scott Baugh
  • This district will combine with the 40th congressional district to form the 42nd district.
    • Incumbent Alan Lowenthal (D) is retiring.

District 48:

  • District is rated as Strong Republican (R+19)
    • Republican: Rep. Darrell Issa (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 50th district.
    • Democrat: Stephen Houlahan (D)

District 49:

  • District is rated as Lean Democrat (D+10) – Key Race
    • Democrat: Rep. Mike Levin (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 49th district.
    • Republican: Brian Marryott (R)

District 50:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+30)
    • Democrat: Rep. Scott Peters (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 52nd district.
    • Republican: Cory Gustafon (R)

District 51:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+30)
    • Democrat: Rep. Sara Jacobs (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 53rd district.
    • Republican: Stan Caplan (R)

District 52:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+40)
    • Democrat: Rep. Juan Vargas (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 52nd district.
    • Republican: Tyler Geffeney (R)

 

Author(s)

John R. West

Public Affairs Advisor

Kate M. Kros

Public Affairs Advisor

Dennis A. Cardoza

Director, Public Affairs

Jennifer F. Walsh

Director, Public Affairs

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